US Politics

So, McCain announced his running mate today.

He proved he hasn't lost his edge of doing something unexpected. In naming Alaskan Gov. Sarah Palin he positioned himself well. I think.

Not only does she have somethings McCain lacks, such as youth and executive experience (something the opposing ticket lacks completely), she also has a track record of fighting for what she believes in, just like McCain.

I don't know much about her, but I expect we will all be finding out much more in the coming months.

Some one pass the popcorn, please. This is going to get interesting.

Is There Truth in Правда?

It has been a little while since my last post, and quite some time since the last time I touched on the problem of Russia. With the recent invasion of Georgia, I decided to delve into that complicated subject. First, I want to know what Russian news is saying about it. Правда, the state run news service, has a number of stories on the matter. What I find most interesting about the writings in Pravda is the heavy handed style of reporting. For example, the article on overt US support of Georgian aggression seems less concerned with facts and more with stating the approved opinion, editorial style.

I also find some of the justification for Russia's actions, in their own words, a bit alarming.

"A[s] for history, the question of separatism – Georgia or Ossetia – is disputable. It was Georgia which decided to pull out from the USSR, whereas the Ossetians protested against such a decision. "

Where have we seen this sort of reasoning in recent history? It seems to me that the last time the world dissolved into conflict, one country had been touting the right and duty of all people of a certain national heritage to flock back to their "homeland" or the Fatherland... A country which stated after mediation that "We want no Czechs." Then proceeded to invade the whole of eastern Europe.

Russia's advance into Georgia has been mediated. They cry peace, pending the resolution of South Ossetia and Abkhazia's desires to secede. Desires which I am sure will be influenced by their rescuers and occupiers, the military of their neighbor to the north.

It seems to me that Russia's initial advance was a little too quick to be purely motivated by the idea of sparing Georgian citizens from the ravages of a civil war. Although there is international precedent for stepping in to halt civil war, it has generally only been done after human rights atrocities in the conflict, such as in the case of Bosnia. However, there is also a good case for allowing internal conflict to remain internal, especially when dealing with Russia stepping into a conflict outside its borders, e.g. Austria-Hungary. I hesitate to say that this conflict could ever escalate the way either of the history lessons earlier did, but that would also require knowing what the southern neighbors in the region will do in reaction to and/or in support of Russia.

In the interest of comparison, BBC and CNN have slightly different takes on what is happening in the region.

Side note: I just noticed this article from the BBC. A little something to further annoy the former Soviet Union when they are trying to consolidate the old lines of influence.

Back to the US legal system.

It's been a little while since I posted here, so I'm starting back in with something simple: separation of Church and State.

I know, hardly a simple topic, but nothing in Constitutional Law is easy. However, I think in this case it's a little more straight forward. There is a case being brought against the U.S. Department of Defense by an atheist army soldier.

The text of the First Amendment is as follows: Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

What does that mean in this case? From the article, I gather that the majority of the soldier's complaint stems from his treatment by other soldiers rather than from formal actions of the military. If that is the case, I can't see how the case can have merit. In order to attain freedom of religion, the military can't keep anyone from practicing their religion, right? What if part of that religion involves the belief that one must evangelize? In that case, to prevent soldiers from attempting to convert someone would be restricting freedom of religion, would it not?

However, if the military, in it's official capacity, treated Spc. Jeremy Hall any differently than any other soldier then the case does have merit. In the eyes of a bureaucracy, a soldier is just a soldier and is dealt with according to the rules set out in triplicate. Or so it should legally be.

Looking at the Theoreticals

I seem to be hearing more and more from the doom and gloom school of thought about our current economic status. So, it seems to be time to take a look at some of the economics at play.
First, let's examine the weakening dollar. The US economy is still one of the world's largest, assuming the EU is counted as one economy. If you don't count the EU as one unit, we are only ahead of our next closest competitor (China) by 6.8 trillion dollars, or 11 trillion ahead of our closest European competitor (Germany.) Therefore, a weak dollar is only a huge impact on our global economic standing if you look at it from where we are, at the top. In addition, it affects our purchasing parity, meaning we can't buy as many foreign goods. To look at it another way, it makes domestic goods a better choice than imports. To simplify that we have to compare apples to oranges, the American apple vs. the Global orange. Apples still cost us the same amount, but an orange is now more than an apple. This also means that American apples are less expensive globally than oranges; more global consumers can buy apples too. You see what I mean, a weaker dollar means that we import less and export more, doing very good things for our trade deficit.
Second, the complaint of rising unemployment. We have an unemployment rate of 4.6%. In theory, this puts at just about the minimum rate, due to job fluctuation. Also, compare that to a worldwide average of 30% and it looks even better for us.
Last, I want to take a look at the much maligned housing market which my real life job is very dependant upon. The worry we all hear about is the rise in foreclosure rates, with one number I saw saying that foreclosures are "up 30%." But what does that mean? It means that now 1 out of every 172 loans defaults, primarily in the segment of loans which would never have been approved by conventional loan methods. However, the latest measurements also state that the rate would have dropped if it weren't for large spikes California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona. While we have seen a market slowdown in development and home sales, they still sell and they still develop. Its a slump driven by overproduction and will self correct given time. Thank you, Adam Smith.

Back to China, and Its Less Loving Activities

After my hiatus working on other projects, such as a new blog and my actual job, I wanted to get back into the swing of things with a post about my favorite subject: China. The last time I brought up the PRC, I talked about its tying itself into the world economy and its developing economy at home. This time I would like to take a look at the downside of those efforts.
We have seen the reports on China's growing economy and we have all heard of the problems with pirated software and cheap knockoffs from China, but how many of us know how much counterfeiting is going on in that country and how much is being done about it? Worse yet, how much does it effect our daily lives?
All of those questions are easy to ask but hard to answer, partially because they are so intertwined. In order to comply with World Trade Organization regulations, China has had to publicly crack down on counterfeiting, but state owned factories are in on the game. See how complicated it has become already? Another complication to the ending the Chinese piracy is how wide spread it is. They manufacture anything from soap and shampoo to peanut butter and beer, cell phones to software, even fake motorcycles and car parts. Some estimates of the market penetration are a conservative 30% of all products sold. The shear breadth of the counterfeiting is costing legitimate businesses millions to develop means to identify the real deal from the fakes, whether it be Budweiser's temperature reactive label or Microsoft's (now faked) holographs on the boxes.
One of the reasons China is so lax on cracking down on piracy is that the state is well aware of the technological disadvantage its companies are at. Their tech base is about a decade behind most fully industrialized countries. The government aids the state run economy through efforts to steal technology from other countries to bring itself into closer competition on the world market. Like all espionage, the PRC does not limit itself to consumer goods and has had many high profile investigations into attempts to steal classified military information. This is an interesting look at China's spying tactics, for those who are interested.
Why is all of this a concern for us? After all, it's not like they are getting the one up on our industries and will be selling high quality items that do new and different things, right? Well, that isn't the concern. What the counterfeiting does to our economy is send in lower quality items (that still work) at much lower prices. The influx of low priced goods undercuts our demand economy and undermines the years of R&D and the millions of dollars in development and branding spent by our companies. It decreases the incentive to develop and makes the reputations of the companies fall. Do we really want that to happen?

This is just ridiculous...

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/02/26/us.warming.ap/index.html?eref=rss_topstories

I'll actually post about this later. Just read it for now.

I have been meaning to finish my post on China, but instead this article caught my eye. While Khomeini may not have been the most popular of rulers in the eyes of the West, he and his religious revolution had a moral compass to fall back on to justify his actions. Also, his followers and clerical successors have been, dare I say it, more open minded than the current leader of Iran. Their defeat in these elections only serves to strengthen Ahmadinejad's power base, strengthened through a political caste without the sometime restraints of a religious point of view, leaving only a leadership devoted to the altar of realpolitik.